双语•智库 | “欧洲的未来”何去何从？精英和民众看法差别真大

法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙9月26日在巴黎索邦大学发布演讲，重提欧盟改革，呼吁法国和德国一起推动欧洲一体化继续前进。德国大选刚刚落幕，专家分析认为，考虑到德国大选以来的政局现状，以及欧盟内当前离心力的增加，要实现马克龙建议的大幅改革，难度非常大。那么，欧洲的未来会如何？欧洲人眼中的欧洲未来又会怎样？

▲法国总统马克龙

近期，国际知名智库英国皇家国际事务研究所（Chatham House，又称查塔姆研究所）对10个欧盟国家中精英群体与普通公众进行了抽样调查，并得出了两个不同人群对此问题的不同看法。概要如下。

The Future of Europe: Comparing Public and Elite Attitudes

欧洲的未来：普通民众与精英群体态度对比

Based on a major survey across 10 EU countries, a new report shows a lack of consensus among the elite over the future of EU integration - and a pronounced divide within the public on issues of identity.

一份基于对10个欧盟国家大规模调查的全新报告显示，精英群体对欧盟一体化的未来缺乏共识，民众内部对身份认同呈明显分化。

The European Union and its member states have faced almost a decade of political tumult. If the EU is to move beyond crisis management towards political and economic renewal, a prerequisite is to understand better the foundation of public and ‘elite’ attitudes to the EU, and where these align and diverge.

欧盟及其成员国几乎经历了十年的政治动乱。如果欧盟想要在危机管理之余实现政治和经济复兴，那么当务之急就是要更好地了解群众基础和“精英”群体对欧盟的态度，以及这些态度的一致和分歧之处。

This paper is based on a unique survey conducted between December 2016 and February 2017 in 10 countries that polled two groups: a representative sample of 10,000 members of the public; and a sample of over 1,800 of Europe’s ‘elite’, individuals in positions of influence from politics, the media, business and civil society at local, regional, national and European levels.

本文采用的调查数据系2016年12月-2017年2月期间对10个国家2组人群进行的特别调研，代表性样本为10000名公众和1800多名欧洲“精英”，即欧洲洲级、国家级、区域级、地方级在政界、舆论界、商界、民间团体具有影响力的人物。

The data reveal a continent split along three lines. First, there is a divide between elites and the public. There is alignment between the two groups in their attitudes to, among other things, EU solidarity, EU democracy and a sense of European identity. However, the data also show an important divide in general attitudes, beliefs and life experiences. The elite are more likely to experience the benefits of EU integration and are more liberal and optimistic. Meanwhile, there is simmering discontent within the public, large sections of whom view the EU in negative terms, want to see it return some powers to member states, and feel anxious over the effects of immigration. Only 34% of the public feel they have benefited from the EU, compared with 71% of the elite. A majority of the public (54%) think their country was a better place to live 20 years ago.

数据显示，欧洲大陆的思想分歧沿着3条线划分：第一是精英群体与民众之间的划分。双方在欧盟的团结、民主以及欧洲身份认同感方面态度一致。但数据还显示，双方在基本的态度、信念和阅历方面截然不同。精英群体更倾向于享受欧盟一体化带来的好处，他们的思想也更自由和乐观。另一方面，民众内部逐渐表现出不满，很多人都消极看待欧盟，希望欧盟能退还成员国一些权力，也对移民问题带来的影响深感担忧。只有34%的民众觉得享受到了欧盟的好处，而持有同样想法的人在精英群体中占比71%。大部分（54%）民众认为20年前他们的国家更宜居。

Second, within the public, there is a pronounced divide between more liberal and authoritarian-minded groups, particularly on issues of identity. This divide plays a much stronger role than other measures, such as economic status or experience of social hardship, in shaping attitudes towards the EU. The political challenges resulting from this divide are likely to persist for many years, even after economic growth is restored and sustained.

第二，在民众内部也存在着偏自由化思想和专制思想两类人群的明显划分，特别是在身份认同方面，他们的态度截然不同。这种思想差异比经济地位、所经历的社会动荡等其他衡量标准更能影响他们对欧盟的态度。而这种分化所带来的政治问题很可能会存在数年，甚至持续到经济发展恢复和稳定之后。

Third, there is a lack of consensus among the elite on important questions about the EU’s direction. While the elite overwhelmingly feel they have benefited from the EU, they are far from united in their attitudes to further integration. Contrary to assumptions that the elite are pro-integration, 28% support the status quo, 37% think the EU should get more powers, and 31% think the EU should return powers to member states. More oppose than support the eventual creation of a ‘United States of Europe’, although there is support for deeper eurozone integration.

第三，精英群体对于欧盟走向的重要问题缺乏共识。虽然绝大多数精英群体都觉得自己受益于欧盟，但他们对欧盟的进一步融合并未形成一致的态度。虽然感觉精英群体应该会赞成一体化，但实际情况是28%认为应该保持现状，37%认为欧盟应该获得更多权力，31%认为欧盟应该将权力归还给各成员国。虽然推动欧元区一体化得到支持，但反对最终建立“欧罗巴合众国”的呼声更高。

The survey makes clear that EU politics has moved from a period in which it was mediating between an integrationist political class and an occasionally skeptical public to one in which there is a more mixed picture among both groups. The findings have important implications for the debate on Europe’s future.

这项调查清楚地表明，欧洲的政治已转向另一个阶段。从前欧洲的政治是在主张融合的政治阶层与常持怀疑态度的民众之间不断斡旋，如今的局面则是双方内部情况都变得更为复杂。这些调查结果对讨论欧洲的未来意义重大。

There is a reservoir of support among the public and the elite for a union based on solidarity. For example, 77% of the elite and 50% of the public think that richer member states should financially support poorer member states, while only 12% of the elite and 18% of the public disagree. This does not simplify the challenges of building a fairer, more cohesive union, but it underlines the belief that an EU marked by very different levels of income and economic performance should still be based on solidarity.

大批民众与精英群体都支持成立团结统一的联盟。比如，77%的精英群体与50%的民众认为较富裕的成员国应该在财政上支持相对贫穷的成员国，对此持反对态度的比例分别仅为12%和18%。建立更为公平团结的联盟面临着诸多挑战，虽然这些支持并不能降低挑战的难度，但却凸显了一个信念，即在各成员国的收入和经济表现存在巨大差异的背景下，欧盟各国仍需紧密团结在一起。

Divides among the elite about the future of the EU leave space for new ideas and vision. There is no consensus among the elite about the balance of powers between the EU and member states, or about a federalist vision. This shows the need for political leadership able to articulate a longer-term vision that might command the support of a majority of elites, as well as of the public. The improving European economy and relative political stability that could follow this year’s elections in France and Germany may create a once-in-a-generation opportunity for a process of political and economic renewal. Such a process appears more likely given the election of President Emmanuel Macron in France, while the survey shows on balance positive views of German leadership. 48% of the public and 62% of the elite think Germany plays a positive role in the EU. 28% of the public and 23% of the elite disagree.

对于欧盟的未来，精英群体多有分歧，这就为新理念和新目标的诞生留出了巨大的空间。而关于欧盟与各成员国之间的权力制衡，或关于联邦的发展前景，精英群体也未达成一致。这就表明，需要有政治领袖来指明长期的发展目标，而目标的实现也需要获得大多数精英群体和公众的支持。今年法国和德国的大选已经结束，随之而来的是欧洲经济改善和政治相对稳定，这将为政治和经济复苏创造一个千载难逢的机会。在法国，埃曼努尔·马克龙当选总统，而在德国，调查结果也显示对其领导人多持乐观态度，使得政治和经济复苏更有希望成为现实。48%的民众和62%的精英群体认为德国在欧盟中发挥了积极作用，而相应持反对态度的比例为28%和23%。

▲赢得第四次连任的德国总理默克尔

Europe needs to move beyond a binary debate. The absence of a clear majority view on the way forward requires an integration agenda that recognizes the diversity of perspectives on Europe’s future, and moves beyond crude notions of ‘more’ or ‘less’ Europe. Many who are broadly content with the union’s performance do not want to transfer more powers to the EU. A substantial number among the public and the elite feel they have benefited from the EU, but also want powers to return to member states. Genuine political renewal in Europe will require a more open, imaginative and even conflictual debate.

欧洲需要走出二元制辩论。对于欧洲未来的发展问题，目前并没有一个绝大多数人都同意的看法，因此有必要制定一体化议程，体现人们对欧洲未来发展问题的多样化看法，不再是“更欧洲”或“更不欧洲”的粗略观点。很多对欧盟运作总体感到满意的人不希望欧盟拥有更多权利。不少民众和精英则认为，他们受益于欧盟，但也希望使权利回归成员国。欧洲真正的政治革新需要一场更加开放、创新甚至是充满冲突的辩论。

Strategies for the EU’s future that emphasize a process of multi-speed integration among specific states ignore the fact that important fault lines cut across the continent as a whole. This suggests the need for a flexible approach to future integration that is built on more than a notion of an EU core and periphery.

欧洲未来发展的策略强调某些特定国家的多速融合，但它忽略了这样一个现实，那就是遍布整个欧洲大陆的（金融）断层线。这说明我们需要一个灵活的未来融合方式，这种方式不再基于是否以欧洲为中心的理念。

【译者注：印度经济学家拉古拉迈·拉詹借用地质学术语“断层线”（fault line）比喻导致美国金融危机爆发的原因，这三条断层线分别是：美国收入差距不断扩大和美国国内政治之间的冲撞、国际收支失衡、不同金融体系之间的碰撞】

Divides within the public are as significant as divides between states, and will require different strategies if they are to be addressed. Those who wish to bolster public support for the EU cannot focus only on strengthening its role in improving the economic welfare of EU citizens. Leaders of EU institutions, as much as national politicians, need to invest greater effort in addressing the gap between their own attitudes and those of their citizens towards deeper social issues – such as fears over loss of national identity, the pressures of immigration, and perceived unequal access to opportunity. Debates over the future direction of the EU need to be reframed so that they address concerns about a perceived threat to national traditions and cultures as much as they respond to anxieties over economic performance.

民众之间的分歧与国家之间的分歧同样值得重视，处理这些分歧需要不同的策略。那些希望激发民众支持欧盟的人，不能仅着眼于加强欧盟在改善成员国公民经济福利方面的作用。欧盟机构的领导人以及各国政治家需要付出更多努力，处理好自己和国内民众之间对更深层社会问题的态度分歧，这些问题包括对民族认同感缺失的担忧、移民压力和普遍认为的机会不均。有关欧盟未来走向的辩论需要重新架构，如此一来，他们才能像应对经济运转中各种焦头烂额的问题那样，更好地处理国家传统和文化所面临的威胁。

作者

▲Thomas Raines

查塔姆研究所欧洲项目研究员，此前任英国外交联邦事务部战略部分析师

▲Matthew Goodwin

英国肯特大学卢瑟福学院政治教授，查塔姆研究所高级访问研究员

▲David Cutts

英国伯明翰大学政治学教授，查塔姆研究所副研究员，此前任职于曼彻斯特大学与巴斯大学

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